Do you have any references to that?Yes. They do underestimate the probability their their depression will end, however (I’ll see if I can find the link to where I read that, it was likely another GMU blogger). I don’t know about other cognitive biases in the depressed.
It looks like there’s still some serious controversy on the issue.
But suppose for a moment that it’s true: Suppose that depressed people really do have more accurate beliefs, and that this really is related to their depression.
What does this mean for rationality? Is it more rational to be delusional and happy or to be accurate and sad? Or can we show that even in light of this data there is a third option, to actually be accurate and happy?
It seems to me—and I’m a depressive—that even if depressed people really do have more accurate self-assessment, your third option is still the most likely.
One recurrent theme on this site is that humans are prone to indulge cognitive biases which _make them happy_. We try to avoid the immediate hedonic penalty of admitting errors, forseeing mistakes, and so on. We judge by the availability heuristic, not by probability, when we imagine a happy result like winning the lottery.
When I’m in a depressed state, I literally _can’t_ imagine a happy result. I imagine that my all plans will fail and striving will be useless.
This is still not a rational state of mind. It’s not _inherently_ more accurate. But it’s a state of mind that’s inherently more resistant to certain specific errors—such as over-optimistic probability assessment or the planning fallacy.
These errors of optimism are common, especially in self-assessment. Which might well be the reason depressed people make more accurate self-assessments—humans as a whole have a cognitive bias to personal overconfidence.
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But it’s also inherently more resistant to optimistic conclusions, _even when they’re backed by the evidence_.
(It’s more rational to be accurate and sad than delusional and happy—because happiness based on delusion frequently crashes into real-world disasters, whereas if you’re accurate and sad you can _use_ the accuracy to reduce the things you’re sad about.)
If you’re an egoist, it’s best to be delusional and happy. If you’re not, the needs of others outweigh your own. Of course, even if depressed people are more accurate, that doesn’t mean that they’re more productive. Then again, they may be able to use their more accurate beliefs to find a better charity and make up the difference. Of course, you could just have a depressed philanthropist tell you where to donate.
Depressive people are definitely accurate on certain things. But they have lost their hopes. They are not seeing the whole picture. We must live and we must help others to live.
Do you have any references to that? Yes. They do underestimate the probability their their depression will end, however (I’ll see if I can find the link to where I read that, it was likely another GMU blogger). I don’t know about other cognitive biases in the depressed.
Wikipedia now has an article on depressive realism.
It looks like there’s still some serious controversy on the issue.
But suppose for a moment that it’s true: Suppose that depressed people really do have more accurate beliefs, and that this really is related to their depression.
What does this mean for rationality? Is it more rational to be delusional and happy or to be accurate and sad? Or can we show that even in light of this data there is a third option, to actually be accurate and happy?
It seems to me—and I’m a depressive—that even if depressed people really do have more accurate self-assessment, your third option is still the most likely.
One recurrent theme on this site is that humans are prone to indulge cognitive biases which _make them happy_. We try to avoid the immediate hedonic penalty of admitting errors, forseeing mistakes, and so on. We judge by the availability heuristic, not by probability, when we imagine a happy result like winning the lottery.
When I’m in a depressed state, I literally _can’t_ imagine a happy result. I imagine that my all plans will fail and striving will be useless.
This is still not a rational state of mind. It’s not _inherently_ more accurate. But it’s a state of mind that’s inherently more resistant to certain specific errors—such as over-optimistic probability assessment or the planning fallacy.
These errors of optimism are common, especially in self-assessment. Which might well be the reason depressed people make more accurate self-assessments—humans as a whole have a cognitive bias to personal overconfidence.
-
But it’s also inherently more resistant to optimistic conclusions, _even when they’re backed by the evidence_.
(It’s more rational to be accurate and sad than delusional and happy—because happiness based on delusion frequently crashes into real-world disasters, whereas if you’re accurate and sad you can _use_ the accuracy to reduce the things you’re sad about.)
If you’re an egoist, it’s best to be delusional and happy. If you’re not, the needs of others outweigh your own. Of course, even if depressed people are more accurate, that doesn’t mean that they’re more productive. Then again, they may be able to use their more accurate beliefs to find a better charity and make up the difference. Of course, you could just have a depressed philanthropist tell you where to donate.
Depressive people are definitely accurate on certain things. But they have lost their hopes. They are not seeing the whole picture. We must live and we must help others to live.