The supposed computations downstream of “chaotic behavior” does not seem to me to be load-bearing for systems being able to do non-trivially influential things in the real world.
Being able to exactly model a human would be sufficient for AGI, but I do not think that a complicated indeterministic system (like humans) can be well modeled by a complicated deterministic system plus a simple random number generator.
Humans are not “indeterministic”. Humans are deterministic computations that follow the laws of physics, and are not free from the laws of reality that constrain them.
AGI is more difficult than being superhuman at every well-specified task because humans can do, and create, things which are not well-specified tasks.
These “not well-specified tasks” are tasks where we fill in the blanks based on our knowledge and experience of what makes sense “in distribution”. This is not at all hard to do with an AI—GPT-4 is a good real-world example of an AI capable of parsing what you call “not well-specified tasks”, even if its actions do not seem to result in “superhuman” outcomes.
I recommend reading the Sequences. It should help reduce some of the confusion inherent to how you think about these topics.
The supposed computations downstream of “chaotic behavior” does not seem to me to be load-bearing for systems being able to do non-trivially influential things in the real world.
Humans are not “indeterministic”. Humans are deterministic computations that follow the laws of physics, and are not free from the laws of reality that constrain them.
These “not well-specified tasks” are tasks where we fill in the blanks based on our knowledge and experience of what makes sense “in distribution”. This is not at all hard to do with an AI—GPT-4 is a good real-world example of an AI capable of parsing what you call “not well-specified tasks”, even if its actions do not seem to result in “superhuman” outcomes.
I recommend reading the Sequences. It should help reduce some of the confusion inherent to how you think about these topics.