I honestly have no idea, and I wish I had a good way of thinking about this.
Far right people say that the end of white America will be the beginning of doom and disaster. It is important not to let either politically motivated wishful thinking or politically correct wishful thinking bias one when trying to get to the real facts of the matter.
One way to think about the problem is to note that different immigrant populations have different social outcomes, and that there is some evidence that this is partially genetic, though it is obviously partly cultural. You could simply say, what would happen if you extrapolated the ethnic socioeconomics in proportion to their increased share of the population. So, in this spherical cow model of societies, overall American socioeconomic and political variables are simply linear combinations of those for ethnic subpopulations. In this simple model, fewer whites would be a bad thing, though more east asians would probably be a good thing.
Another effect is to note that humans innately cluster and ally with those who are similar to them, so as the ethinic diversity (you could even calculate an ethnic entropy as SIGMA[ r_i log r_i ] ) increases, you’d expect the country to be more disunified, and more likely to have a civil war or other serious internal conflict. (Hypothesis: ethnic entropy correlates with civil wars).
My rational expectation is that the demographic shift will have a mildly bad effect on overall welfare in 2042, but that no one will believe me because it sounds “racist”.
If the trend continues to 2100 and no major effect intervenes, US will be Hispanic majority as far as I know. My rational expectation of outcomes in this case is that something disruptive will happen, i.e. that the model will somehow break, perhaps violently. I just can’t imagine a smooth transition to a majority Hispanic US.
I honestly have no idea, and I wish I had a good way of thinking about this.
Far right people say that the end of white America will be the beginning of doom and disaster. It is important not to let either politically motivated wishful thinking or politically correct wishful thinking bias one when trying to get to the real facts of the matter.
One way to think about the problem is to note that different immigrant populations have different social outcomes, and that there is some evidence that this is partially genetic, though it is obviously partly cultural. You could simply say, what would happen if you extrapolated the ethnic socioeconomics in proportion to their increased share of the population. So, in this spherical cow model of societies, overall American socioeconomic and political variables are simply linear combinations of those for ethnic subpopulations. In this simple model, fewer whites would be a bad thing, though more east asians would probably be a good thing.
Another effect is to note that humans innately cluster and ally with those who are similar to them, so as the ethinic diversity (you could even calculate an ethnic entropy as SIGMA[ r_i log r_i ] ) increases, you’d expect the country to be more disunified, and more likely to have a civil war or other serious internal conflict. (Hypothesis: ethnic entropy correlates with civil wars).
My rational expectation is that the demographic shift will have a mildly bad effect on overall welfare in 2042, but that no one will believe me because it sounds “racist”.
If the trend continues to 2100 and no major effect intervenes, US will be Hispanic majority as far as I know. My rational expectation of outcomes in this case is that something disruptive will happen, i.e. that the model will somehow break, perhaps violently. I just can’t imagine a smooth transition to a majority Hispanic US.