The base rate is too low for all but the oldest segment of the population. A quick google search says roughly 0.8% death rate of 64-75 year olds over four years [EDIT: see correction downthread], and most of that will be from health problems which show signs far in advance. For younger people, the death rate itself would be below 0.1%.
Also, how are you geting 0.8%? This website says that the mortality rate of 65-75 year olds is 2%. So over 4 years that should be 8%, which I think makes it much more plausible that quantum death probability is 0.1%(although clearly 8% isn’t the real probability, any presidential candidate is probably way less likely to die than the background population)
Yyyyeah, I’m not totally sure if you get 0.1% just from people dying, hence the ~. But I think it’s at least within a factor of 10, which makes me think the total quantum randomness factor is at least 0.1%. And to defend the “people dying” factor, (a) many of the candidates are in fact pretty old these days (b) presidents have a relatively high rate of being assassinated − 4 of 45(!), although I assume the actual probability is lower now than the historical average (c) randomness within the 4-year window could affect how quickly a pre-existing health problem progresses, although this might result in them dropping out early/not rather than actually dying.
For younger people(in presidential-candidate age ranges) the annual death rate ranges from 0.15% to 0.5%, see here (So the 4-year death rate ranges from 0.6% to 2%)
The base rate is too low for all but the oldest segment of the population.
A quick google search says roughly 0.8% death rate of 64-75 year olds over four years[EDIT: see correction downthread], and most of that will be from health problems which show signs far in advance. For younger people, the death rate itself would be below 0.1%.Also, how are you geting 0.8%? This website says that the mortality rate of 65-75 year olds is 2%. So over 4 years that should be 8%, which I think makes it much more plausible that quantum death probability is 0.1%(although clearly 8% isn’t the real probability, any presidential candidate is probably way less likely to die than the background population)
You’re right, I misread. I retract that part of my claim.
Yyyyeah, I’m not totally sure if you get 0.1% just from people dying, hence the ~. But I think it’s at least within a factor of 10, which makes me think the total quantum randomness factor is at least 0.1%. And to defend the “people dying” factor, (a) many of the candidates are in fact pretty old these days (b) presidents have a relatively high rate of being assassinated − 4 of 45(!), although I assume the actual probability is lower now than the historical average (c) randomness within the 4-year window could affect how quickly a pre-existing health problem progresses, although this might result in them dropping out early/not rather than actually dying.
For younger people(in presidential-candidate age ranges) the annual death rate ranges from 0.15% to 0.5%, see here (So the 4-year death rate ranges from 0.6% to 2%)