I think this argument is not sufficient. Turnout effects of weather can flip elections that are already close, and from our limited perspective, more than 0.1% of elections are close. But the question is asking about the 2028 election in particular, which will probably not be so close.
well, as a conditional argument against it being close: if trump wins in 2024 and enacts project 2025, I expect trump’s successor’s win margin to be an unprecedented-in-the-usa landslide
This seems to be focussing on one specific means by which quantum randomness might affect a result.
Another means may be via personal health of a candidate. For example, everyone has pre-cancerous cells that just need the right trigger to form a malignancy, especially in the older people that tend to be candidates in US presidential elections, or for an undetected existing cancer to progress to become serious.
Is there comparable with 0.1% chance that due to a cosmic ray or any other event, that a candidate will have something happen that is serious enough that it affects their ability to run for the 2028 election? It seems likely that the result of an election depends at least moderately strongly upon who is running.
I think this argument is not sufficient. Turnout effects of weather can flip elections that are already close, and from our limited perspective, more than 0.1% of elections are close. But the question is asking about the 2028 election in particular, which will probably not be so close.
do we have any reason to believe that particular election won’t be close
well, as a conditional argument against it being close: if trump wins in 2024 and enacts project 2025, I expect trump’s successor’s win margin to be an unprecedented-in-the-usa landslide
Do you have greater than 99.9% confidence that it will not be close?
This seems to be focussing on one specific means by which quantum randomness might affect a result.
Another means may be via personal health of a candidate. For example, everyone has pre-cancerous cells that just need the right trigger to form a malignancy, especially in the older people that tend to be candidates in US presidential elections, or for an undetected existing cancer to progress to become serious.
Is there comparable with 0.1% chance that due to a cosmic ray or any other event, that a candidate will have something happen that is serious enough that it affects their ability to run for the 2028 election? It seems likely that the result of an election depends at least moderately strongly upon who is running.