I’m offering $100 at even odds right now and will probably want to bet again in the next few years. I can give it to you (if you’re going to transfer it to SIAI/CFAR tell me and I’ll donate directly), and you pay me $200 if the world has not ended in 100 years as soon as we’re both available (e.g. thawed). If you die you can keep the money; if I die then win give it to some sensible charity.
(Neglecting any logistic or legal isses) this sounds like a no brainer for Eliezer (accept).
How’s that sound?
Like you would be better served by making the amounts you give and expect to receive if you win somewhat more proportionate to expected utility of the resources at the time. If Eliezer was sure he was going to lose he should still take the low interest loan.
Even once the above is accounted for Eliezer should still accept the bet (in principle).
Dollar amounts are meant as purchasing-power-adjusted. I am sticking my fingers in my ears and chanting “La la, can’t hear you” at discounting effects.
(Neglecting any logistic or legal isses) this sounds like a no brainer for Eliezer (accept).
Like you would be better served by making the amounts you give and expect to receive if you win somewhat more proportionate to expected utility of the resources at the time. If Eliezer was sure he was going to lose he should still take the low interest loan.
Even once the above is accounted for Eliezer should still accept the bet (in principle).
Dollar amounts are meant as purchasing-power-adjusted. I am sticking my fingers in my ears and chanting “La la, can’t hear you” at discounting effects.