As wedifrid says, this is a no-brainer “accept” (including the purchasing-power-adjusted caveat). If you are inside the US and itemize deductions, please donate to SIAI, otherwise I’ll accept via Paypal. Your implied annual interest rate assuming a 100% probability of winning is 0.7% (plus inflation adjustment). Please let me know whether you decide to go through with it; withdrawal is completely understandable—I have no particular desire for money at the cost of forcing someone else to go through with a bet they feel uncomfortable about. (Or rather, my desire for $100 is not this strong—I would probably find $100,000 much more tempting.)
Don’t worry, my only debitor who pays higher interest rates than that is my bank. As long as that’s not my main liquidity bottleneck I’m happy to follow medieval morality on lending.
If you publish transaction data to confirm the bet, please remove my legal name.
Bet received. I feel vaguely guilty and am reminding myself hard that money in my Paypal account is hopefully a good thing from a consequentialist standpoint.
As wedifrid says, this is a no-brainer “accept” (including the purchasing-power-adjusted caveat). If you are inside the US and itemize deductions, please donate to SIAI, otherwise I’ll accept via Paypal. Your implied annual interest rate assuming a 100% probability of winning is 0.7% (plus inflation adjustment). Please let me know whether you decide to go through with it; withdrawal is completely understandable—I have no particular desire for money at the cost of forcing someone else to go through with a bet they feel uncomfortable about. (Or rather, my desire for $100 is not this strong—I would probably find $100,000 much more tempting.)
PayPal-ed to sentience at pobox dot com.
Don’t worry, my only debitor who pays higher interest rates than that is my bank. As long as that’s not my main liquidity bottleneck I’m happy to follow medieval morality on lending.
If you publish transaction data to confirm the bet, please remove my legal name.
Bet received. I feel vaguely guilty and am reminding myself hard that money in my Paypal account is hopefully a good thing from a consequentialist standpoint.
Bet recorded: LW bet registry, PB.com.