This is still a misleading framing, confusing “what she will discover” with “what is (aka: what she is guaranteed to discover later)”. (tails, monday), (tails, tuesday), and (heads, monday) are the only experiences she will have, but (heads, tuesday) is assumed to happen in her model of the universe, though she won’t know it happened until she’s woken on Wednesday.
(Heads, Tuesday) does not occur in conjunction with her waking up, assuming the experimenters behave in the way they say they will. So when she wakes up, it is not a possibility for what her current situation is. Which is what we’re talking about.
This is still a misleading framing, confusing “what she will discover” with “what is (aka: what she is guaranteed to discover later)”. (tails, monday), (tails, tuesday), and (heads, monday) are the only experiences she will have, but (heads, tuesday) is assumed to happen in her model of the universe, though she won’t know it happened until she’s woken on Wednesday.
(Heads, Tuesday) does not occur in conjunction with her waking up, assuming the experimenters behave in the way they say they will. So when she wakes up, it is not a possibility for what her current situation is. Which is what we’re talking about.