When in January did you make the first prediction? Near the start of January, 30% would have been too high given publically available information. Even scattered non-public information only collated in retrospect wasn’t enough to assign 30% chance to a pandemic at that stage.
Near the end of January, I agree that 30% would have been too low.
When in January did you make the first prediction? Near the start of January, 30% would have been too high given publically available information. Even scattered non-public information only collated in retrospect wasn’t enough to assign 30% chance to a pandemic at that stage.
Near the end of January, I agree that 30% would have been too low.
I think I was at about the same place for most of it, but unfortunately I didn’t write that one down and can’t go back and check :/.