The vast majority of yes/no questions you’re likely to face won’t support 5% intervals. You’re just not going to get enough data to have any idea whether the “true” calibration is what actually happens for that small selection of questions.
Tetlock found in the Good Judgement Project as described in his book Superforcasting that people who are excellent at forcasting do very finely grained predictions.
Tetlock found in the Good Judgement Project as described in his book Superforcasting that people who are excellent at forcasting do very finely grained predictions.