I think you are probably overconfident mostly because of the use of the term ‘every’ in some of these clauses. Consider that if GPT-4 is trained on arxiv, it could plausibly make many many research suggestions. And all it would need to do in order to disprove the extremely generally worded clause 3 would be to eventually generate one such research suggestion that improves ‘compute’ (hardware or software efficiency), which eventually becomes a certainty with enough suggestions. So essentially you are betting that GPT-4 is not trained on arxiv.
I should have explained what I mean by “always (10/10)”: If you generate 10 completions, you expect with 95% confidence that all 10 satisfies the criteria.
All the absolute statements in my post should be turned down from 100% to 99.5%. My intuition is that if less than 1 in 200 ideas are valuable, it will not be worthwhile to have the model contribute to improving itself.
I think you are probably overconfident mostly because of the use of the term ‘every’ in some of these clauses. Consider that if GPT-4 is trained on arxiv, it could plausibly make many many research suggestions. And all it would need to do in order to disprove the extremely generally worded clause 3 would be to eventually generate one such research suggestion that improves ‘compute’ (hardware or software efficiency), which eventually becomes a certainty with enough suggestions. So essentially you are betting that GPT-4 is not trained on arxiv.
I should have explained what I mean by “always (10/10)”: If you generate 10 completions, you expect with 95% confidence that all 10 satisfies the criteria.
All the absolute statements in my post should be turned down from 100% to 99.5%. My intuition is that if less than 1 in 200 ideas are valuable, it will not be worthwhile to have the model contribute to improving itself.