Eliezer frequently makes predictions and even bets.
Frequently? The http://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Bets_registry lists just 3 bets by Eliezer (full disclaimer: 1 involving me), which even dating just from 2008 (the first listed one) represents less than 1 a year.
(If we want to bring in the AI box experiments as involving money and so being bets, it’s still less than 1 a year since that pushes the interval back to the early 2000s while only adding in like 4 bets.)
Frequently? The http://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Bets_registry lists just 3 bets by Eliezer (full disclaimer: 1 involving me), which even dating just from 2008 (the first listed one) represents less than 1 a year.
(If we want to bring in the AI box experiments as involving money and so being bets, it’s still less than 1 a year since that pushes the interval back to the early 2000s while only adding in like 4 bets.)
Translation from human: “I can think of multiple instances without trying hard.”
Terrorists frequently attack us.
Seems like a reasonable claim. Certainly compared to how often they attack us.