2) If the early filter is true, part of it may be still active, like the higher intensity of gamma ray bursts, asteroid impacts, or temperature instability of atmosphere. If this is true, we live in the more fragile world, and global warming is higher risk.
3) If any new civilisation is expanding with almost speed of light and is destroying everything on its way, which is the most expected outcome of Alien paperclip maximiser, we could exist only in the regions of the universe, where such event didn’t happen yet. However, if it were very often, we should find ourself surprisingly early. But we are not. Sun is somewhere in the median of all stars which will ever appear. But if we look on the timescale, and expect that the universe will exist trillions of years (no Big Rip), then we are surprisingly early.
But even smaller probability that Rare Earth is not true has higher consequences because if visible aliens exist, it could have enormous consequences for us, as it means either later filter, or a possibility of the contact.
I would be also interested in anthropic updates and utility updates of Fermi paradox.
Anthropic updates: 1) According to Katja Grace, SIA makes more probable that we live in a universe with the later filter. https://www.academia.edu/475444/Anthropic_Reasoning_in_the_Great_Filter
2) If the early filter is true, part of it may be still active, like the higher intensity of gamma ray bursts, asteroid impacts, or temperature instability of atmosphere. If this is true, we live in the more fragile world, and global warming is higher risk.
3) If any new civilisation is expanding with almost speed of light and is destroying everything on its way, which is the most expected outcome of Alien paperclip maximiser, we could exist only in the regions of the universe, where such event didn’t happen yet. However, if it were very often, we should find ourself surprisingly early. But we are not. Sun is somewhere in the median of all stars which will ever appear. But if we look on the timescale, and expect that the universe will exist trillions of years (no Big Rip), then we are surprisingly early.
Utility considerations:
If Rare Earth is true, METI and SETI is useless and thus safe activity. For a long time I wrote that SETI is much more dangerous activity than METI, as we could find alien AI. https://www.academia.edu/30029491/The_Risks_Connected_with_Possibility_of_Finding_Alien_AI_Code_During_SETI
But even smaller probability that Rare Earth is not true has higher consequences because if visible aliens exist, it could have enormous consequences for us, as it means either later filter, or a possibility of the contact.