Before reading this article, and based only on its title, I predicted (on PredictionBook, with confidence 80%) that the result would be that prisoners cooperated “surprisingly” often, based both on the phrase “not what you would expect” and based on vague general things I guessed about prison culture. Thanks for the calibration exercise!
The calibration exercise aside, I don’t think this is particularly relevant to PD discussions on LessWrong, which I thought were more about “true” PDs (e.g. us vs. aliens, us vs. a paperclip maximizer). The incentives in a PD between humans are not easily deducible from the setup of the experiment alone.
Before reading this article, and based only on its title, I predicted (on PredictionBook, with confidence 80%) that the result would be that prisoners cooperated “surprisingly” often, based both on the phrase “not what you would expect” and based on vague general things I guessed about prison culture. Thanks for the calibration exercise!
The calibration exercise aside, I don’t think this is particularly relevant to PD discussions on LessWrong, which I thought were more about “true” PDs (e.g. us vs. aliens, us vs. a paperclip maximizer). The incentives in a PD between humans are not easily deducible from the setup of the experiment alone.