For the first question, I’m happy we identified this as an issue. I think it is quite different. If you think there’s a good chance you will die soon, then your marginal money will likely not be that valuable to you. It’s a lot more valuable in the case that you survive.
For example, say you found out tomorrow that there’s a 50% chance everyone will die in one week. (Gosh this is a downer example) You also get to place an investment for $50, that will pay out in two weeks for $70. Is the expected value of the bet really equivalent to (70/2)-50 = -$5? If you don’t expect to spend all of your money in one week, I think it’s still a good deal.
I’d note that Superforecasters have performed better than Prediction Markets, in what I believe are relatively small groups (<20 people). While I think that Prediction Markets could theoretically work, I’m much more confident in systems like those of Superforecasters, where they wouldn’t have to make explicit bets. That said, you could argue that their time is the cost, so the percentage chance still matters. (Of course, the alternative, of giving them money to enjoy for 5-15 years before 50% death, also seems pretty bad)
For the first question, I’m happy we identified this as an issue. I think it is quite different. If you think there’s a good chance you will die soon, then your marginal money will likely not be that valuable to you. It’s a lot more valuable in the case that you survive.
For example, say you found out tomorrow that there’s a 50% chance everyone will die in one week. (Gosh this is a downer example) You also get to place an investment for $50, that will pay out in two weeks for $70. Is the expected value of the bet really equivalent to (70/2)-50 = -$5? If you don’t expect to spend all of your money in one week, I think it’s still a good deal.
I’d note that Superforecasters have performed better than Prediction Markets, in what I believe are relatively small groups (<20 people). While I think that Prediction Markets could theoretically work, I’m much more confident in systems like those of Superforecasters, where they wouldn’t have to make explicit bets. That said, you could argue that their time is the cost, so the percentage chance still matters. (Of course, the alternative, of giving them money to enjoy for 5-15 years before 50% death, also seems pretty bad)