I would interpret “the latest possible date a prediction can come true and still remain in the lifetime of the person making it”, “lifetime” would be the longest typical lifetime, rather than an actuarial average. So—we know lots of people who live to 95, so that seems like it’s within our possible lifetime. I certainly could live to 95, even if it’s less than a 50⁄50 shot.
One other bit—the average life expectancy is for the entire population, but the average life expectancy of white, college educated persons earning (or expected to earn) a first or second quintile income is quite a bit higher, and a very high proportion of LWers fall into that demographic. I took a quick actuarial survey a few months back that suggested my life expectancy given my family age/medical history, demographics, etc. was to reach 92 (I’m currently 43).
I would interpret “the latest possible date a prediction can come true and still remain in the lifetime of the person making it”, “lifetime” would be the longest typical lifetime, rather than an actuarial average. So—we know lots of people who live to 95, so that seems like it’s within our possible lifetime. I certainly could live to 95, even if it’s less than a 50⁄50 shot.
One other bit—the average life expectancy is for the entire population, but the average life expectancy of white, college educated persons earning (or expected to earn) a first or second quintile income is quite a bit higher, and a very high proportion of LWers fall into that demographic. I took a quick actuarial survey a few months back that suggested my life expectancy given my family age/medical history, demographics, etc. was to reach 92 (I’m currently 43).