Note that it is possible for newcomers to hold the same inaccurate beliefs as their predecessors while the core improves its knowledge or expands in size. In fact, as LW grows it will have to recruit from, say, Hacker News (where I first heard of LW) instead of Singularity lists, producing newcomers less in tune with the local truth.
(Unnamed’s comment shows interesting differences in opinion between a “core” and the rest, but (s)he seems to have skipped the only question with an easily-verified answer, i.e. Newton.)
The calibration question was more complicated to analyze, but now I’ve looked at it and it seems like core members were slightly more accurate at estimating the correct year (p=.05 when looking at size of the error, and p=.12 when looking at whether or not it was within the 20-year range), but there’s no difference in calibration.
Note that it is possible for newcomers to hold the same inaccurate beliefs as their predecessors while the core improves its knowledge or expands in size. In fact, as LW grows it will have to recruit from, say, Hacker News (where I first heard of LW) instead of Singularity lists, producing newcomers less in tune with the local truth.
(Unnamed’s comment shows interesting differences in opinion between a “core” and the rest, but (s)he seems to have skipped the only question with an easily-verified answer, i.e. Newton.)
The calibration question was more complicated to analyze, but now I’ve looked at it and it seems like core members were slightly more accurate at estimating the correct year (p=.05 when looking at size of the error, and p=.12 when looking at whether or not it was within the 20-year range), but there’s no difference in calibration.
(“He”, btw.)