As with the last survey, it’s amazing how casually many people assign probabilities like 1% and 99%. I can understand in a few cases, like the religion questions, and Fermi-based answers to the aliens in the galaxy question. But on the whole it looks like many survey takers are just failing the absolute basics: don’t assign extreme probabilities without extreme justification.
On the other hand, conjunctive bias exists. It’s not hard to string together enough conjunctions that the probability of the statement should be in an extreme range.
As with the last survey, it’s amazing how casually many people assign probabilities like 1% and 99%. I can understand in a few cases, like the religion questions, and Fermi-based answers to the aliens in the galaxy question. But on the whole it looks like many survey takers are just failing the absolute basics: don’t assign extreme probabilities without extreme justification.
On the other hand, conjunctive bias exists. It’s not hard to string together enough conjunctions that the probability of the statement should be in an extreme range.
Does this describe any of the poll questions?