Specifically, I would guess that you can distinguish the strength of your belief that a lottery ticket you might purchase will win the jackpot from one in a thousand (a.k.a. 0.1%). Am I mistaken?
That’s a very special case—in the case of the lottery, it is actually possible-in-principle to enumerate BIG_NUMBER equally likely mutually-exclusive outcomes. Same with getting the works of shakespeare out of your random number generator. The things under discussion don’t have that quality.
I agree in principle, but on the other hand the questions on the survey are nowhere as easy as “what’s the probability of winning such-and-such lottery”.
I expect this is incorrect.
Specifically, I would guess that you can distinguish the strength of your belief that a lottery ticket you might purchase will win the jackpot from one in a thousand (a.k.a. 0.1%). Am I mistaken?
That’s a very special case—in the case of the lottery, it is actually possible-in-principle to enumerate BIG_NUMBER equally likely mutually-exclusive outcomes. Same with getting the works of shakespeare out of your random number generator. The things under discussion don’t have that quality.
I agree in principle, but on the other hand the questions on the survey are nowhere as easy as “what’s the probability of winning such-and-such lottery”.
You’re right, good point.