Some of the effects will depend on details of the implementation. For example, if self-driving cars are constrained to obey highway speed limits, the commute time may increase in some cases, at least initially. Upon achieving saturation of self-driving cars, I would expect shorter commute times on non-highways. Also, upon saturation, it may be seen as desirable to raise the highway speed limit.
Keep in mind that non-self-driving cars will always be cheaper and will always have a market no matter how good autonomous ones get since autonomous vehicles have more parts and maintenance needs. You will never have an area with only autonomous vehicles, absent massive government intervention.
I place the likelyhood of massive government intervention or the equivalent (insurance becoming flat out unavailable for manual drivers) at somewhere north of 90 %. Driver error has a really high cost in quality adjusted life years, every year. If eliminating that cost becomes an option, it will get used.
Some of the effects will depend on details of the implementation. For example, if self-driving cars are constrained to obey highway speed limits, the commute time may increase in some cases, at least initially. Upon achieving saturation of self-driving cars, I would expect shorter commute times on non-highways. Also, upon saturation, it may be seen as desirable to raise the highway speed limit.
Keep in mind that non-self-driving cars will always be cheaper and will always have a market no matter how good autonomous ones get since autonomous vehicles have more parts and maintenance needs. You will never have an area with only autonomous vehicles, absent massive government intervention.
I place the likelyhood of massive government intervention or the equivalent (insurance becoming flat out unavailable for manual drivers) at somewhere north of 90 %. Driver error has a really high cost in quality adjusted life years, every year. If eliminating that cost becomes an option, it will get used.