I genuinely think that the space of “what level of success will a business have if it follows its business plan” is inherently fractal in the same way that “which root of a polynomial will repeated iteration of Newton’s method converge to” is inherently fractal. For some plans, a tiny change to the plan can lead to a tiny change in behavior, which can lead to a giant change in outcome.
Which is to say “it is, at most points it doesn’t matter that it is, but if the point is adversarially selected you once again have to care”.
All that said, this is a testable hypothesis. I can’t control the entire world closely enough to run tiny variations on a business plan and plot the results on a chart, but I could do something like “take the stable diffusion text encoder, encode three different prompts (e.g. ‘a horse’, ‘a salad bowl’, ‘a mountain’) and then, holding the input noise steady, generate an image for each blend, classify the output images, and plot the results”. Do you have strong intuitions about what the output chart would look like?
I genuinely think that the space of “what level of success will a business have if it follows its business plan” is inherently fractal in the same way that “which root of a polynomial will repeated iteration of Newton’s method converge to” is inherently fractal. For some plans, a tiny change to the plan can lead to a tiny change in behavior, which can lead to a giant change in outcome.
Which is to say “it is, at most points it doesn’t matter that it is, but if the point is adversarially selected you once again have to care”.
All that said, this is a testable hypothesis. I can’t control the entire world closely enough to run tiny variations on a business plan and plot the results on a chart, but I could do something like “take the stable diffusion text encoder, encode three different prompts (e.g. ‘a horse’, ‘a salad bowl’, ‘a mountain’) and then, holding the input noise steady, generate an image for each blend, classify the output images, and plot the results”. Do you have strong intuitions about what the output chart would look like?