We did this on Less Wrong a couple years ago; Warrigal called it The Aumann’s agreement theorem game (guess 2⁄3 of the average). The average guess was about 13.2, making the winning number (2/3 the average in that game) about 8.8.
I wonder if repeated trials would drive the average down or up?
We did this on Less Wrong a couple years ago; Warrigal called it The Aumann’s agreement theorem game (guess 2⁄3 of the average). The average guess was about 13.2, making the winning number (2/3 the average in that game) about 8.8.
I wonder if repeated trials would drive the average down or up?