I talk about the probability of rain tomorrow, and you ask me if this a “subjective probability”, “frequentist probability”, or a “propensity”. The math would be the same. The expected utility of carrying an umbrella is high.
Argh ! NO. The kind of probability that matter when calculating expected utility and making decisions based on expected utility is the Bayesian kind. The math WOULDN’T be the same. There is no such thing as the frequency of rain tomorrow beyond 100% if it does rain and 0% if it doesn’t, so you can’t compute it before the event happened. Propensity is more complicated and possibly incoherent as a concept, but you can’t compute it either.
Argh ! NO. The kind of probability that matter when calculating expected utility and making decisions based on expected utility is the Bayesian kind. The math WOULDN’T be the same. There is no such thing as the frequency of rain tomorrow beyond 100% if it does rain and 0% if it doesn’t, so you can’t compute it before the event happened. Propensity is more complicated and possibly incoherent as a concept, but you can’t compute it either.