Yes, to be clear, I don’t buy the M-G law either on the basis of earlier surveys which showed it was just cherrypicking a few points motivated by dunking on forecasts. But it is still widely informally believed, so I point this out to annoy such people: ‘you can have your M-G law but you will have to also have the implication (which you don’t want) that timelines dropped almost an entire decade in this survey & the past few years have not been business-as-usual or “expected” or “predicted”’.
Yes, to be clear, I don’t buy the M-G law either on the basis of earlier surveys which showed it was just cherrypicking a few points motivated by dunking on forecasts. But it is still widely informally believed, so I point this out to annoy such people: ‘you can have your M-G law but you will have to also have the implication (which you don’t want) that timelines dropped almost an entire decade in this survey & the past few years have not been business-as-usual or “expected” or “predicted”’.