I don’t think they’re particularly informed on forecasting and I’d be more inclined to trust the inside view arguments, but it’s still relevant information.
For people in epistemic positions similar to ours, I think surveys like this are not very useful for updating on timelines & p(doom) & etc., but are very useful for updating on what ML researchers think about those things, which is important for different reasons.
For people in epistemic positions similar to ours, I think surveys like this are not very useful for updating on timelines & p(doom) & etc., but are very useful for updating on what ML researchers think about those things, which is important for different reasons.
(I do not represent AI Impacts, etc.)