Thanks, that way to derive it makes sense! The point about free trade also seems right. With free trade, EV bettors will buy all risk from Kelly bettors until the former is gone with high probabiliity.
So my point only applies to bettors that can’t trade. Basically, in almost every market, the majority of resources are controlled by Kelly bettors; but across all markets in the multiverse, the majority of resources are controlled by EV bettors, because they make bets such that they dominate the markets which contain most of the multiverse’s resources.
(Or if there’s no sufficiently large multiverse, Kelly bettors will dominate with arbitrary probability; but EV bettors will (tautologically) still get the most expected money.)
Thanks, that way to derive it makes sense! The point about free trade also seems right. With free trade, EV bettors will buy all risk from Kelly bettors until the former is gone with high probabiliity.
So my point only applies to bettors that can’t trade. Basically, in almost every market, the majority of resources are controlled by Kelly bettors; but across all markets in the multiverse, the majority of resources are controlled by EV bettors, because they make bets such that they dominate the markets which contain most of the multiverse’s resources.
(Or if there’s no sufficiently large multiverse, Kelly bettors will dominate with arbitrary probability; but EV bettors will (tautologically) still get the most expected money.)