Ah, stocking up on $2 tests would be awesome! That I would certainly endorse.
My reasoning on antigen false negatives is coming from a few lines of evidence. Perhaps I can share some later. But in short, 1) lots of studies have found much higher than average false negative rates, so results are high-variance/​heterogeneous 2) my anecdotal counts of people around me concords with the above studies 3) my prior is fairly high on studies overestimating the efficacy of tests, based on BOTH lab conditions being extra controlled and on scientists being biased toward finding higher efficacy (and this affecting studies in a real way that is hard to control for). Thus my preferred resolution of the mystery between anecdotal efficacy and average study efficacy is that studies overestimate efficacy.
Ah, stocking up on $2 tests would be awesome! That I would certainly endorse.
My reasoning on antigen false negatives is coming from a few lines of evidence. Perhaps I can share some later. But in short, 1) lots of studies have found much higher than average false negative rates, so results are high-variance/​heterogeneous 2) my anecdotal counts of people around me concords with the above studies 3) my prior is fairly high on studies overestimating the efficacy of tests, based on BOTH lab conditions being extra controlled and on scientists being biased toward finding higher efficacy (and this affecting studies in a real way that is hard to control for). Thus my preferred resolution of the mystery between anecdotal efficacy and average study efficacy is that studies overestimate efficacy.