An average vaccinated 30yo now loses about 6 weeks of expected life from contracting COVID instead of 2 weeks, because of waning vaccine efficacy.
I think this is incorrect if you believe that vaccine efficacy against severe disease decreases more slowly than the efficacy against infection. This seems to be borne out by observational data and makes sense theoretically as neutralising antibodies don’t stick around as long as B and T cells.
Therefore, conditional on infection, your protection against severe disease is actually increasing even as overall effectiveness wanes (i.e. each infection has a lower chance of leading to severe disease).
I think this is incorrect if you believe that vaccine efficacy against severe disease decreases more slowly than the efficacy against infection. This seems to be borne out by observational data and makes sense theoretically as neutralising antibodies don’t stick around as long as B and T cells.
Therefore, conditional on infection, your protection against severe disease is actually increasing even as overall effectiveness wanes (i.e. each infection has a lower chance of leading to severe disease).