I wouldn’t entirely dismiss Kennedy just yet; he’s polling better than any independent or third party candidate since Ross Perot. That being said, I do agree that his chances are quite low, and I expect I’ll end up having to vote for one of the main two candidates.
Mr. Pero got fewer votes than either major party candidate. Not a ringing endorsement. And I didn’t say the chances were quite low, I said they were zero*. Which is at least 5 orders of magnitude difference from “quite low” so I don’t think we agree about his chances.
*technically odds can’t be zero, but I consider anything less likely than “we are in a simulation that is subject to intervention from outside” to be zero for all decision making purposes.
Maybe the chance that Kennedy wins, given a typical election between a Republican and a Democrat, is too low to be worth tracking. But this election seems unusually likely to have off-model surprises—Biden dies, Trump dies, Trump gets arrested, Trump gets kicked off the ballot, Trump runs independently, controversy over voter fraud, etc. If something crazy happens at the last minute, people could end up voting for Kennedy.
If you think the odds are so low, I’ll bet my 10 euros against your 10,000 that Kennedy wins. (Normally I’d use US dollars, but the value of a US dollar in 2024 could change based on who wins the election.)
I would. It’s possible an election in which a third party candidate has a serious chance might exist, but it wouldn’t look like this one at this point. Only way the boat could at least be rocked is if the charges go through and Trump is out of the race by force majeure, at which point there’s quite a bit of chaos.
I wouldn’t entirely dismiss Kennedy just yet; he’s polling better than any independent or third party candidate since Ross Perot. That being said, I do agree that his chances are quite low, and I expect I’ll end up having to vote for one of the main two candidates.
Mr. Pero got fewer votes than either major party candidate. Not a ringing endorsement. And I didn’t say the chances were quite low, I said they were zero*. Which is at least 5 orders of magnitude difference from “quite low” so I don’t think we agree about his chances.
*technically odds can’t be zero, but I consider anything less likely than “we are in a simulation that is subject to intervention from outside” to be zero for all decision making purposes.
Maybe the chance that Kennedy wins, given a typical election between a Republican and a Democrat, is too low to be worth tracking. But this election seems unusually likely to have off-model surprises—Biden dies, Trump dies, Trump gets arrested, Trump gets kicked off the ballot, Trump runs independently, controversy over voter fraud, etc. If something crazy happens at the last minute, people could end up voting for Kennedy.
If you think the odds are so low, I’ll bet my 10 euros against your 10,000 that Kennedy wins. (Normally I’d use US dollars, but the value of a US dollar in 2024 could change based on who wins the election.)
I can’t tie up cash in any sort of escrow, but I’d take that bet on a handshake.
I would. It’s possible an election in which a third party candidate has a serious chance might exist, but it wouldn’t look like this one at this point. Only way the boat could at least be rocked is if the charges go through and Trump is out of the race by force majeure, at which point there’s quite a bit of chaos.