I read many papers from a diverse array of sources. I arrived at most papers either by clicking links on one of the blogs or websites mentioned above, or using Google or Google Scholar searches for specific topics. Any paper that I use as input to my opinion in a specific post will be explicitly linked in that post.
I can’t include a list of papers right now because the list of papers will itself be determined in real time during my inquiries, but I will link to the ones I reference at each stage of research.
Of course a number of the blogs convey the message that climate science as a whole is utterly partisan and biased, so any output of climate scientists through secondary sources and summaries is untrustworthy. If you can’t analyse the underlying primary evidence, and do not assign negligible prior probability to such a mass scientific conspiracy (or mass scientific error) then it is hard to refute that mindset. But you still have to ask who has the greater incentives here: is it really poorly paid scientists pushing a conspiracy or collective fantasy to get a bit more funding, or is it highly paid lobbyists, firms and commentators defending a trillion dollar industry, one which would be doomed by serious action on climate change?
This needs to be unpacked.
poorly paid scientists pushing a conspiracy or collective fantasy to get a bit more funding
Scientists are driven by a range of motives including research prestige and ego (those who have made statements in the past want to have those statements vindicated), the desire to impress and influence peers, etc. Getting more funding is part of the status game. These incentives can distort their findings, not necessarily forever but for long enough (just like the climate system, the system of scientific discovery is not in equilibrium; there are lags).
More importantly, simple cognitive and human biases can get in the way of proper analysis. One of the points I raise is that it’s possible, based on Armstrong and Green’s critique (I’m still investigating this) that climate scientists appear not to have consulted people in other relevant areas of expertise (specifically, forecasting and statistics). People in these areas of expertise have come up with a lot of relevant and counter-intuitive findings about how to go about this sort of tricky data analysis.
highly paid lobbyists, firms and commentators defending a trillion dollar industry
Of the sources I list, which ones do you think is written or funded by people who fit this description?
I believe that Real Climate and Skeptical Science are largely authored by working climate scientists
Judith Curry is also a working climate scientist.
Stephen McIntyre isn’t a working climate scientist, but his criticism of Mann’s statistical errors (which aren’t necessarily relevant to the main arguments for AGW) have been acknowledged as essentially correct. I also took a reasonably detailed look at the specifics of the argument, and although I can’t have very high confidence, I’m inclined to believe that McIntyre was right. He seems to be sufficiently rigorous in his work and a sufficiently strong skeptic that his critiques are worth reading. Moreover, he rarely claims more confidence than is warranted: he isn’t publishing his own theories of climate change, he sees it as his job mainly to catch bad statistics.
Watts Up With That? seems to have poorer quality control in general, and often publishes opinion-type posts, but many of those opinion posts are guest posts by working climate scientists (albeit not necessarily high-profile ones). i wouldn’t assign high credence to the blog.
Stephen McIntyre isn’t a working climate scientist, but his criticism of Mann’s statistical errors (which aren’t necessarily relevant to the main arguments for AGW) have been acknowledged as essentially correct. I also took a reasonably detailed look at the specifics of the argument
There are a number of points here, but the most compelling is that the statistical criticisms were simply irrelevant. Contrary to McIntyre and McKitrick’s claims, the differences in principal component methodology make no difference to the proxy reconstructions. And the hockey stick graph has since been replicated dozens of times using multiple different proxies and methods, by multiple authors.
On funding, it can be difficult to trace: see this article in Scientific American and the original paper plus the list of at least 91 climate counter-movement organisations, page 4, which have an annual income of over $900 million. A number of these organisations are known to have received funding by companies like Exxon and Koch Industries, though the recent trend appears to be more opaque funding through foundations and trusts.
On your particular sources, Climate Audit is on that list; also, from his Wikipedia bio it appears that Steve McIntyre was the founder and president of Northwest Explorations inc until it was taken over by CGX Resources to form the oil and gas exploration company CGX Energy Inc. He was a “strategic advisor” to CGX Energy at the time of his critique of the “hockey stick” in 2003.
Anthony Watts has received funding from the Heartland Institute#Affiliation_with_Heartland_Institute) which is also on the list. He claims it was not for the WUWT blog, and he approached them rather than the other way round.
Judith Curry has admitted to receiving “some funding from the fossil fuel industry” DeSmogBlog quoting Scientific American though again she claims no correlation with her views.
As I mentioned in the post:
I can’t include a list of papers right now because the list of papers will itself be determined in real time during my inquiries, but I will link to the ones I reference at each stage of research.
This needs to be unpacked.
Scientists are driven by a range of motives including research prestige and ego (those who have made statements in the past want to have those statements vindicated), the desire to impress and influence peers, etc. Getting more funding is part of the status game. These incentives can distort their findings, not necessarily forever but for long enough (just like the climate system, the system of scientific discovery is not in equilibrium; there are lags).
More importantly, simple cognitive and human biases can get in the way of proper analysis. One of the points I raise is that it’s possible, based on Armstrong and Green’s critique (I’m still investigating this) that climate scientists appear not to have consulted people in other relevant areas of expertise (specifically, forecasting and statistics). People in these areas of expertise have come up with a lot of relevant and counter-intuitive findings about how to go about this sort of tricky data analysis.
Of the sources I list, which ones do you think is written or funded by people who fit this description?
Judith Curry is also a working climate scientist.
Stephen McIntyre isn’t a working climate scientist, but his criticism of Mann’s statistical errors (which aren’t necessarily relevant to the main arguments for AGW) have been acknowledged as essentially correct. I also took a reasonably detailed look at the specifics of the argument, and although I can’t have very high confidence, I’m inclined to believe that McIntyre was right. He seems to be sufficiently rigorous in his work and a sufficiently strong skeptic that his critiques are worth reading. Moreover, he rarely claims more confidence than is warranted: he isn’t publishing his own theories of climate change, he sees it as his job mainly to catch bad statistics.
Watts Up With That? seems to have poorer quality control in general, and often publishes opinion-type posts, but many of those opinion posts are guest posts by working climate scientists (albeit not necessarily high-profile ones). i wouldn’t assign high credence to the blog.
Did you have a look at these responses? Or at Mann’s book on the subject?
There are a number of points here, but the most compelling is that the statistical criticisms were simply irrelevant. Contrary to McIntyre and McKitrick’s claims, the differences in principal component methodology make no difference to the proxy reconstructions. And the hockey stick graph has since been replicated dozens of times using multiple different proxies and methods, by multiple authors.
On funding, it can be difficult to trace: see this article in Scientific American and the original paper plus the list of at least 91 climate counter-movement organisations, page 4, which have an annual income of over $900 million. A number of these organisations are known to have received funding by companies like Exxon and Koch Industries, though the recent trend appears to be more opaque funding through foundations and trusts.
On your particular sources, Climate Audit is on that list; also, from his Wikipedia bio it appears that Steve McIntyre was the founder and president of Northwest Explorations inc until it was taken over by CGX Resources to form the oil and gas exploration company CGX Energy Inc. He was a “strategic advisor” to CGX Energy at the time of his critique of the “hockey stick” in 2003.
Anthony Watts has received funding from the Heartland Institute#Affiliation_with_Heartland_Institute) which is also on the list. He claims it was not for the WUWT blog, and he approached them rather than the other way round.
Judith Curry has admitted to receiving “some funding from the fossil fuel industry” DeSmogBlog quoting Scientific American though again she claims no correlation with her views.