Calculating probabilities for many everyday issues is hugely weird for many people.
And rightly so. The great majority of people are badly calibrated, can’t estimate priors properly, etc. If they tried to calculate probabilities for “many everyday issues” I would bet most of them would land straight in the valley of bad rationality.
And rightly so. The great majority of people are badly calibrated, can’t estimate priors properly, etc. If they tried to calculate probabilities for “many everyday issues” I would bet most of them would land straight in the valley of bad rationality.
Heck, many people here can’t do it right. I’m in particular thinking of the recent thread about computing probability of UFOs or aliens.