Splitting it by internal/external is a nice system.
I think people do this instinctively in real life. Exhibit A: people buy lottery tickets. My theory for this is that they know that the odds of winning are too low to justify buying a ticket assuming it is actually fully random. However, most people are willing to put the probability that karma, divine justice, God’s plan or their lucky ritual might swing the lottery in their direction at some nonzero value. If they believe in one of these things with even 1% certainty then the ticket is a good deal for them.
Splitting it by internal/external is a nice system.
I think people do this instinctively in real life. Exhibit A: people buy lottery tickets. My theory for this is that they know that the odds of winning are too low to justify buying a ticket assuming it is actually fully random. However, most people are willing to put the probability that karma, divine justice, God’s plan or their lucky ritual might swing the lottery in their direction at some nonzero value. If they believe in one of these things with even 1% certainty then the ticket is a good deal for them.
A lottery ticket can be justified in terms of utility even if it can’t be justified in terms of expected value.