prase comments on Confidence levels inside and outside an argument

[prase]

When you play with fire, there is a ⁵⁰⁄₅₀ chance something will go wrong, and nine times out of ten it does.

They are only admitting their poor calibration.

[atucker]

Heh.

Though, admitting poor calibration that way is like saying “I incorrectly believe X to be true, its actually Y”.