I would say that according to my model (i.e. inside the argument (in this post’s terminology)), it’s not possible that that isn’t true, but that I assign greater than 0% credence to the outside-the-argument possibility that I’m wrong about what’s possible.
You can think for a moment, that 1024*10224=1048578. You can make an honest arithmetic mistake. More probable for bigger numbers, less probable for smaller. Very, very small for 2 + 2 and such. But I wouldn’t say it’s zero, and also not that the 0 is always excluded with the probability 1.
Exclusion of 0 and 1 implies, that this exclusion is not 100% certain. Kind of a probabilistic modus tollens.
I would say that according to my model (i.e. inside the argument (in this post’s terminology)), it’s not possible that that isn’t true, but that I assign greater than 0% credence to the outside-the-argument possibility that I’m wrong about what’s possible.
(A few relevant posts: How to Convince Me That 2 + 2 = 3; But There’s Still A Chance, Right?; The Fallacy of Gray)
You can think for a moment, that 1024*10224=1048578. You can make an honest arithmetic mistake. More probable for bigger numbers, less probable for smaller. Very, very small for 2 + 2 and such. But I wouldn’t say it’s zero, and also not that the 0 is always excluded with the probability 1.
Exclusion of 0 and 1 implies, that this exclusion is not 100% certain. Kind of a probabilistic modus tollens.
What is it that is true? (Just to clarify..)
This:
Discarding 0 and 1 from the game implies, that we have a positive probability—that they are wrongly excluded.