One can argue back and forth about the validity or lack thereof of a given set of assumptions, of course...
That is why I posted it as a comment on this particular post, after all. It’s clear that our subjective probability of casting a tie-breaking vote is going to be far less extreme than 10^-90 because our belief in the binomial idealization being correct puts a much less extreme bound on the tie-breaking vote probability than just taking 10^-90 at face value.
That is why I posted it as a comment on this particular post, after all. It’s clear that our subjective probability of casting a tie-breaking vote is going to be far less extreme than 10^-90 because our belief in the binomial idealization being correct puts a much less extreme bound on the tie-breaking vote probability than just taking 10^-90 at face value.