Then, when a journalist wants to collapse your forecast into a point estimate, go ahead and give them such a point estimate...but make it absurd enough that the smart & conscientious readers might feel compelled to do a fact check.
To me, this advice seems to reflect the wrong mindset. It assumes way too much control you have over what the journalist will write. If you tell a journalist “Top Forecasting Team Says World Population in 2050 Will be Only Six Thousand!” there’s a good chance that they will just write “Top Forecasting Team Says World Population will massively decrease in the middle of the century”.
Find a polite way to say, “nothing personal, but your profession carries a reputation for untrustworthiness.”
There’s nothing that you achieve that way. Either you find yourself in a position where you believe that it’s to your advantage to talk to a journalist and then you talk or you just don’t talk to them. You get nothing for telling them that their profession is untrustworthy.
“Top Forecasting Team Says World Population in 2050 Will be Only Six Thousand!” there’s a good chance that they will just write “Top Forecasting Team Says World Population will massively decrease in the middle of the century”.
Ok that’s probably true. This idea was meant mostly as a joke, but still...I can’t help but wonder if there might be some cool Straussian tactic to push a tiny signal through the Great Distorter.
(I have interacted with a few reporters)
To me, this advice seems to reflect the wrong mindset. It assumes way too much control you have over what the journalist will write. If you tell a journalist “Top Forecasting Team Says World Population in 2050 Will be Only Six Thousand!” there’s a good chance that they will just write “Top Forecasting Team Says World Population will massively decrease in the middle of the century”.
There’s nothing that you achieve that way. Either you find yourself in a position where you believe that it’s to your advantage to talk to a journalist and then you talk or you just don’t talk to them. You get nothing for telling them that their profession is untrustworthy.
Ok that’s probably true. This idea was meant mostly as a joke, but still...I can’t help but wonder if there might be some cool Straussian tactic to push a tiny signal through the Great Distorter.