Upon further thought, maybe just splitting up #1 and #2 is oversimplifying. There’s probably a position #1.5, which is more like “Words like “goals” and “beliefs” only make sense to the extent that they’re applied to Bayesians with utility functions—every other approach to understanding agenthood is irredeemably flawed.” This gets pretty close to normative realism because you’re only left with one possible theory, but it’s still not making any realist normative claims (even if you think that goals and beliefs are morally relevant, as long as you’re also a moral anti-realist). Maybe a relevant analogy: you might believe that using any axioms except the ZFC axioms will make maths totally incoherent, while not actually holding any opinion on whether the ZFC axioms are “true”.
Upon further thought, maybe just splitting up #1 and #2 is oversimplifying. There’s probably a position #1.5, which is more like “Words like “goals” and “beliefs” only make sense to the extent that they’re applied to Bayesians with utility functions—every other approach to understanding agenthood is irredeemably flawed.” This gets pretty close to normative realism because you’re only left with one possible theory, but it’s still not making any realist normative claims (even if you think that goals and beliefs are morally relevant, as long as you’re also a moral anti-realist). Maybe a relevant analogy: you might believe that using any axioms except the ZFC axioms will make maths totally incoherent, while not actually holding any opinion on whether the ZFC axioms are “true”.