One part of this issue: The answer to the question is literally unknowable with our current scientific tools (though as we develop better models for simulating biology and culture this might change). We can’t run experiments that are not contaminated by culture/biology.
What is left is observational evidence.
Proving causality with observational evidence usually doesn’t work. This is especially the case with an issue like this with only a moderate effect size (a one SD effect on test scores is tiny compared to the impact of smoking on lung cancer, or stomach sleeping on SIDS), and where both factors are always present and connected.
What is left is reasoning from priors.
Personally I think HBD is unlikely because the observed outcome differences are exactly the sort of thing the known cultural forces would create even if there was no genetic difference, so the existence of these outcome differences does not serve as additional evidence of genetic differences. This means that while it is totally possible there could be major intelligence differences between groups, I don’t have any particular reason to think they actually exist.
But this argument is simply not a robust or rigorous proof. I give it around a 1⁄100 chance of being wrong, while things that I actually know, like the name of the president, have a far, far smaller chance of being wrong.
One part of this issue: The answer to the question is literally unknowable with our current scientific tools (though as we develop better models for simulating biology and culture this might change). We can’t run experiments that are not contaminated by culture/biology.
What is left is observational evidence.
Proving causality with observational evidence usually doesn’t work. This is especially the case with an issue like this with only a moderate effect size (a one SD effect on test scores is tiny compared to the impact of smoking on lung cancer, or stomach sleeping on SIDS), and where both factors are always present and connected.
What is left is reasoning from priors.
Personally I think HBD is unlikely because the observed outcome differences are exactly the sort of thing the known cultural forces would create even if there was no genetic difference, so the existence of these outcome differences does not serve as additional evidence of genetic differences. This means that while it is totally possible there could be major intelligence differences between groups, I don’t have any particular reason to think they actually exist.
But this argument is simply not a robust or rigorous proof. I give it around a 1⁄100 chance of being wrong, while things that I actually know, like the name of the president, have a far, far smaller chance of being wrong.