But why are we assigning probability across a spectrum of competing theories? I thought we were supposed to be assigning probability to the theories themselves.
In other words, P(X) is my best guess at X being true. P(Y) is my best guess at Y being true. In the case of two complex theories trying to explain a particular phenomenon, why does P(X) + P(Y) + P(other theories) need to equal 1?
Or am I thinking of theories that are too complex? Are you thinking of X and Y as irreducible and mutually exclusive objects?
Or am I thinking of theories that are too complex? Are you thinking of X and Y as irreducible and mutually exclusive objects?
...yes? It’s not a matter of complexity, though; the problem you might be alluding to is that the groups of theories we describe when we enunciate our thoughts can overlap.
But why are we assigning probability across a spectrum of competing theories? I thought we were supposed to be assigning probability to the theories themselves.
In other words, P(X) is my best guess at X being true. P(Y) is my best guess at Y being true. In the case of two complex theories trying to explain a particular phenomenon, why does P(X) + P(Y) + P(other theories) need to equal 1?
Or am I thinking of theories that are too complex? Are you thinking of X and Y as irreducible and mutually exclusive objects?
...yes? It’s not a matter of complexity, though; the problem you might be alluding to is that the groups of theories we describe when we enunciate our thoughts can overlap.