Description: A technical introduction to forecasting by Philip Tetlock that covers his decades-long experiment on eliciting quantitative forecasts from experts in politics and international relations.
Positives:
The book is both quantitative and qualitative: it goes over statistical measures of forecasting performance such as Brier scores, discrimination and calibration while also leaving plenty of space for discussion of specific forecasts by experts, how they justified their forecasts, how they updated on new information, et cetera.
Covers a lot of temptations that forecasters often fall into in order to avoid admitting they are wrong. Detecting these patterns of behavior in yourself can be quite valuable.
Negatives:
Some parts of the book can be too technical for a lay audience. The book is primarily written in an academic style and the quantitative parts can be difficult to parse if you’re not acquainted with probability theory & statistics.
Most of the events referenced in the book date to the 1980s and 1990s, so if you’re unfamiliar with the history of this period then most of the qualitative discussion of specific forecasts can fly over your head.
I haven’t read Superforecasting but second-hand information tells me that Expert Political Judgment is his best book for those with a technical background. If you don’t have such a background, Superforecasting might be the better read for you.
Book: Expert Political Judgment
Description: A technical introduction to forecasting by Philip Tetlock that covers his decades-long experiment on eliciting quantitative forecasts from experts in politics and international relations.
Positives:
The book is both quantitative and qualitative: it goes over statistical measures of forecasting performance such as Brier scores, discrimination and calibration while also leaving plenty of space for discussion of specific forecasts by experts, how they justified their forecasts, how they updated on new information, et cetera.
Covers a lot of temptations that forecasters often fall into in order to avoid admitting they are wrong. Detecting these patterns of behavior in yourself can be quite valuable.
Negatives:
Some parts of the book can be too technical for a lay audience. The book is primarily written in an academic style and the quantitative parts can be difficult to parse if you’re not acquainted with probability theory & statistics.
Most of the events referenced in the book date to the 1980s and 1990s, so if you’re unfamiliar with the history of this period then most of the qualitative discussion of specific forecasts can fly over your head.
Did you read Superforcasting by him? Thought it looked interesting, wanted to see which is better from someone who read both.
I haven’t read Superforecasting but second-hand information tells me that Expert Political Judgment is his best book for those with a technical background. If you don’t have such a background, Superforecasting might be the better read for you.
Thanks—a useful and thoughtful reply.