I am wondering about the conditions where the zero would come from geometric rationality of some way to cognise the field.
I have approached similar things by explaining to myself that the zero relates to how unstated or new entrants to the system refer to the explicit content.
That is if zero is high then third options are aversed away from.
If the zero is super low then third options are strongly attracted to.
One of the options being at zero means that there are loads and loads of equivalent replacements for it or that we would be ambivalent to changing it to a unknown third option.
If you live on a street where there is a crash once a day, then hearing the first crash of the day is not really significant but kind of “it is Tuesday” acknowledgement. If you do not hear a crash that day, it is actually a good day. If you have a car crash once a year then having a car day is a bad day and not having one is a neutral day.
So status quo reference class tennis could largely end up being the same thing. One tool to understand different zero points would be to imagine what they claim about what “expected” looks like which might be easier than applying to the specific choice at hand.
I am wondering about the conditions where the zero would come from geometric rationality of some way to cognise the field.
I have approached similar things by explaining to myself that the zero relates to how unstated or new entrants to the system refer to the explicit content.
That is if zero is high then third options are aversed away from.
If the zero is super low then third options are strongly attracted to.
One of the options being at zero means that there are loads and loads of equivalent replacements for it or that we would be ambivalent to changing it to a unknown third option.
If you live on a street where there is a crash once a day, then hearing the first crash of the day is not really significant but kind of “it is Tuesday” acknowledgement. If you do not hear a crash that day, it is actually a good day. If you have a car crash once a year then having a car day is a bad day and not having one is a neutral day.
So status quo reference class tennis could largely end up being the same thing. One tool to understand different zero points would be to imagine what they claim about what “expected” looks like which might be easier than applying to the specific choice at hand.