Yes, the fact that LW community convinces people to subscribe to cryonics is not mysterious. The mysterious thing is that the LW community manages at the same time to convince people that cryonics is unlikely to work.
Except the people who are signed up and the people who think it’s less likely to work are not the same people. For example, I meet the criteria for “experienced lesswronger”, and I am both not signed up for cryonics and think it’s very unlikely to work. There are similarly other people in the Boston meetup group who are signed up and think it’s somewhat likely to work. It’s only mysterious if you assume we’re homogenous.
Yes, that’s another possible explanation, and here’s yet another one. I’m not saying the Yvain’s theory is correct, only that Lalartu’s comment fails to fully account for the situation Yvain describes (though their later comment seems to make up for it if I understood it correctly).
I’m not sure I understand you. Are you saying that the reason most people don’t subscribe to cryonics is not that they think that it is unlikely to work but some other reason, and so convincing people that it is unlikely to work is compatible with convincing people to do it? In that case that seems to me like a reasonable point of view.
It is certainly true that, independent of how likely you think cryonics is to work, most people stay unsubscribed not because they don’t think it will work but because it’s weird.
Yes, the fact that LW community convinces people to subscribe to cryonics is not mysterious. The mysterious thing is that the LW community manages at the same time to convince people that cryonics is unlikely to work.
Except the people who are signed up and the people who think it’s less likely to work are not the same people. For example, I meet the criteria for “experienced lesswronger”, and I am both not signed up for cryonics and think it’s very unlikely to work. There are similarly other people in the Boston meetup group who are signed up and think it’s somewhat likely to work. It’s only mysterious if you assume we’re homogenous.
Yes, that’s another possible explanation, and here’s yet another one. I’m not saying the Yvain’s theory is correct, only that Lalartu’s comment fails to fully account for the situation Yvain describes (though their later comment seems to make up for it if I understood it correctly).
Because “it will never work” is not the main reason why people don’t subscribe for cryonics.
I’m not sure I understand you. Are you saying that the reason most people don’t subscribe to cryonics is not that they think that it is unlikely to work but some other reason, and so convincing people that it is unlikely to work is compatible with convincing people to do it? In that case that seems to me like a reasonable point of view.
Yes. Effect from convincing people that cryonics is socially acceptable far outweights lower success estimates.
It is certainly true that, independent of how likely you think cryonics is to work, most people stay unsubscribed not because they don’t think it will work but because it’s weird.