Agreed: I have no idea why I should be investing in index funds (if, indeed, I were investing in anything). My skepticism about that example, though, actually comes from a slightly different place:
If I decided to do some investing, went to five financial experts, asked them what I should invest in, and they all said “Yep, index funds, definitely the way to go”, then I would invest in index funds. Right? Where would I even get the idea to do anything else?
And thus, why does “invest in index funds” qualify as a counterintuitive idea? Why is it a thing that some people might not take seriously? Wouldn’t it just be the default?
If I decided to do some investing, went to five financial experts, asked them what I should invest in, and they all said “Yep, index funds, definitely the way to go”, then I would invest in index funds
probably wouldn’t happen. If you asked uninvolved experts, it would, but the most accessible experts aren’t uninvolved. What is much more likely is that you (the average American with some money to invest) go to invest your money with an investment firm. And that investment firm pushes you toward actively-managed funds, since that’s where their incentives are. In order for the idea of investing solely in index funds to be available, you have to put in meaningful thought, if only enough to look for non-corporate advice on how to invest well.
I’m not an expert, but my impression is that most people don’t think about this kind of thing without prompting. Which means that they don’t think about it unless they, for example, see an ad for Charles Schwab and call them to look into investing. Getting to the point of considering whether the expert has an incentive to lie to you seems to mark you as of substantially above-average reasoning skills.
Agreed: I have no idea why I should be investing in index funds (if, indeed, I were investing in anything). My skepticism about that example, though, actually comes from a slightly different place:
If I decided to do some investing, went to five financial experts, asked them what I should invest in, and they all said “Yep, index funds, definitely the way to go”, then I would invest in index funds. Right? Where would I even get the idea to do anything else?
And thus, why does “invest in index funds” qualify as a counterintuitive idea? Why is it a thing that some people might not take seriously? Wouldn’t it just be the default?
Because this
probably wouldn’t happen. If you asked uninvolved experts, it would, but the most accessible experts aren’t uninvolved. What is much more likely is that you (the average American with some money to invest) go to invest your money with an investment firm. And that investment firm pushes you toward actively-managed funds, since that’s where their incentives are. In order for the idea of investing solely in index funds to be available, you have to put in meaningful thought, if only enough to look for non-corporate advice on how to invest well.
Huh. That makes sense, I suppose. Do people generally not seek advice from uninvolved experts? Is that true only in investing, or in other domains?
I’m not an expert, but my impression is that most people don’t think about this kind of thing without prompting. Which means that they don’t think about it unless they, for example, see an ad for Charles Schwab and call them to look into investing. Getting to the point of considering whether the expert has an incentive to lie to you seems to mark you as of substantially above-average reasoning skills.