The probability of missing both turns for a p is 2*p […] Which is just 2*p or p^2 The probability of making the first turn is just p […] So the expected utility is p*0 or just 0.
The probability of missing both turns for a p is 2*p […] Which is just 2*p or p^2
The probability of making the first turn is just p […] So the expected utility is p*0 or just 0.
In (1), instead of 2*p, you want p*p. In (2), you want 1 – p instead of p. The final results are correct, however.
I feel kind of silly now; what was I thinking in writing ‘2*p or just 2*p’?
Right, right. I had difficulty remembering whether p was the chance of making a turn or missing a turn. Good thing the multiplication by 0 makes the difference moot.
Ah well, it happens.
In (1), instead of 2*p, you want p*p. In (2), you want 1 – p instead of p. The final results are correct, however.
I feel kind of silly now; what was I thinking in writing ‘2*p or just 2*p’?
Right, right. I had difficulty remembering whether p was the chance of making a turn or missing a turn. Good thing the multiplication by 0 makes the difference moot.
Ah well, it happens.