Not quite. Say your time is worth $90/hr. If you spend 20 seconds thinking about the answer, you’ve done worst than instantly picking at random. You’ve done just as bad as instantly picking the wrong answer. If it’s worth spending any time at all thinking about the question, it’s worth spending considerably less than 20 seconds.
On a binary question, you should spend <10 seconds even if you approach certainty at t = 10s (at $90/hr). Depending on your certainty/time profile, it could be even less.
That corresponds to valuing a marginal increment of your time at $180/hr, which seems a bit high—the base concept makes sense, though.
Not quite. Say your time is worth $90/hr. If you spend 20 seconds thinking about the answer, you’ve done worst than instantly picking at random. You’ve done just as bad as instantly picking the wrong answer. If it’s worth spending any time at all thinking about the question, it’s worth spending considerably less than 20 seconds.
On a binary question, you should spend <10 seconds even if you approach certainty at t = 10s (at $90/hr). Depending on your certainty/time profile, it could be even less.