“Avoid counterfactuals and thought experiments.”
Seems inconsistent with:
“If presented with a Monty Hall problem, switch.”
You’re probably not going to encounter an actual Monty hall problem, but maybe something kind of similar. I think “If presented with a Monty Hall problem, Think” is a better heuristic.
Perhaps the most important heuristics are the ones that tell you when to stop using heuristics.
“Avoid counterfactuals and thought experiments.” Seems inconsistent with: “If presented with a Monty Hall problem, switch.”
You’re probably not going to encounter an actual Monty hall problem, but maybe something kind of similar. I think “If presented with a Monty Hall problem, Think” is a better heuristic.
Perhaps the most important heuristics are the ones that tell you when to stop using heuristics.