I have no idea whether we are even talking about the same problem. (Probably not, since my thinking did not arise from raking). But you do seem to be suggesting that the multiplication by 100 does not alter the upper bound on the probability. As I read the wiki article on “Pascal’s Mugging”, Robin Hanson suggests that it does. Assuming, of course, that by “his offering” you mean the amount of disutility he threatens. And the multiplication by 100 does also affect the number (in this example 0.01) which I need to know whether p is less than. Which strikes me as the real point.
This whole subject seems bizarre to me. Are we assuming that this mugger has Omega-like psy powers? Why? If not, how does my upper bound calculation and its timing have an effect on his “offer”? I seem to have walked into the middle of a conversation with no way from the context to guess what went before.
I have no idea whether we are even talking about the same problem. (Probably not, since my thinking did not arise from raking). But you do seem to be suggesting that the multiplication by 100 does not alter the upper bound on the probability. As I read the wiki article on “Pascal’s Mugging”, Robin Hanson suggests that it does. Assuming, of course, that by “his offering” you mean the amount of disutility he threatens. And the multiplication by 100 does also affect the number (in this example 0.01) which I need to know whether p is less than. Which strikes me as the real point.
This whole subject seems bizarre to me. Are we assuming that this mugger has Omega-like psy powers? Why? If not, how does my upper bound calculation and its timing have an effect on his “offer”? I seem to have walked into the middle of a conversation with no way from the context to guess what went before.