Time from AGI to superintelligence is probably less than 1 year
I think you’re omitting an effect. Current LLMs can train on vast amounts (petabytes to exabytes) of content created by humans. This is valuable training data for systems up to about human-level, and can perhaps even be extrapolated some distance beyond human level. But to take the process further, we will have to extend the training set to a larger training set of more sophisticated content, containing superhumas art/science/culture/engineering, one larger than the entire product of human civilization so far. This is not impossible, but it is a very large amount of intellectual work, some of which requires not just computation but also rate-limited real-world interactions to do things like constructing scientific apparatus and performing scientific experiments. This problem recurs each time you scale capabilities enough that extrapolation isn’t practicable. See my post LLMs May Find it Hard to FOOM for more details. You need to estimate this and account for it in your estimate of time from AGI to superintelligence.
I think you’re omitting an effect. Current LLMs can train on vast amounts (petabytes to exabytes) of content created by humans. This is valuable training data for systems up to about human-level, and can perhaps even be extrapolated some distance beyond human level. But to take the process further, we will have to extend the training set to a larger training set of more sophisticated content, containing superhumas art/science/culture/engineering, one larger than the entire product of human civilization so far. This is not impossible, but it is a very large amount of intellectual work, some of which requires not just computation but also rate-limited real-world interactions to do things like constructing scientific apparatus and performing scientific experiments. This problem recurs each time you scale capabilities enough that extrapolation isn’t practicable. See my post LLMs May Find it Hard to FOOM for more details. You need to estimate this and account for it in your estimate of time from AGI to superintelligence.