Eliezer Yudkowsky gave > 70% to “a key event occurring sometime in the next century”.
Robin Hanson gave < 1% to “a hand-coded version will suddenly and without warning change from nearly powerless to overwhelmingly powerful” and “a friendliness-needing event by 2108″.
So far, ISTM, that the participants haven’t publicly established that they are talking about the same thing. Also, what they do seem to be talking about is rather vague. How key is “key”? What does “friendliness-needing” actually mean? How suddenly is “suddenly”? - and so on.
Robin seems to visualise uploaded humans running over the planet and taking everyone’s jobs in the none-too-distant. Does he think that is “friendly”? Does Eliezer agree about that?
As far as disagreement goes, what is the evidence that the participants are seeking the truth on this topic—or any other? Are we supposed to ignore the council of sociobiologists that tell us that such debates frequently revolve around social factors such as status, reputation, money, signalling—and so on?
Eliezer Yudkowsky gave > 70% to “a key event occurring sometime in the next century”.
Robin Hanson gave < 1% to “a hand-coded version will suddenly and without warning change from nearly powerless to overwhelmingly powerful” and “a friendliness-needing event by 2108″.
So far, ISTM, that the participants haven’t publicly established that they are talking about the same thing. Also, what they do seem to be talking about is rather vague. How key is “key”? What does “friendliness-needing” actually mean? How suddenly is “suddenly”? - and so on.
Robin seems to visualise uploaded humans running over the planet and taking everyone’s jobs in the none-too-distant. Does he think that is “friendly”? Does Eliezer agree about that?
As far as disagreement goes, what is the evidence that the participants are seeking the truth on this topic—or any other? Are we supposed to ignore the council of sociobiologists that tell us that such debates frequently revolve around social factors such as status, reputation, money, signalling—and so on?