In other areas we have somewhat reliable social mechanisms to validate assertions that absurd-appearing claims are in fact reasonable. So when an assertion seems absurd, and there is no social validation that it is still reasonable, we are willing to all the more conclude the claim is not reasonable. So perhaps when we consider claims about the future, we do not sufficiently correct for the fact that in this area we do not have reliable social mechanisms to validate assertions.
In other areas we have somewhat reliable social mechanisms to validate assertions that absurd-appearing claims are in fact reasonable. So when an assertion seems absurd, and there is no social validation that it is still reasonable, we are willing to all the more conclude the claim is not reasonable. So perhaps when we consider claims about the future, we do not sufficiently correct for the fact that in this area we do not have reliable social mechanisms to validate assertions.